Perhaps more than the individual price changes themselves.
The latest European monitoring shows a market that is broadly stable in terms of supply.
Quarter on quarter:
▪️ R134a: +1%
▪️ R410A: +2%
Nothing particularly dramatic.
Yet compared with 2014, their prices remain several times higher, reaching up to 9.6x for R134a and 11.3x for R410A at distributor level.
➡️ And 2026 adds another element.
➡️ Under the new F-Gas framework, quota allocations now carry a €3/tCO₂e payment.
➡️ At the same time, quota authorisations were traded in Q2 at around €14–18.5/tCO₂e.
So the economics of a refrigerant increasingly cannot be separated from its regulatory weight.
But another part of the Q2 data is perhaps even more interesting.
Among the alternatives:
▪️ R290: +11%
▪️ R32: +9%
▪️ R448A: +4%
▪️ R744: unchanged
One quarter is not enough to establish a trend, and these movements should not be interpreted as a direct consequence of F-Gas alone.
But they raise an interesting point.
For several years, the refrigerant transition could be read relatively simply:
๐น๐ฒ๐๐ ๐พ๐๐ผ๐๐ฎ → ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ต๐ถ๐ด๐ต-๐๐ช๐ฃ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ → ๐๐๐ฟ๐ผ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐บ๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ-๐๐ช๐ฃ ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ป๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐.
➡️ The next phase may be less linear.
F-Gas is progressively influencing not only refrigerant supply, but also which equipment can be placed on the market.
Manufacturers are responding.
We are seeing new R290 compressor platforms, components, larger-capacity applications and lower-charge product architectures.
CO₂ continues to expand.
HFO-based solutions continue to develop.
Meanwhile, millions of existing systems still require traditional refrigerants for servicing, creating another market for recovery and reclamation.
➡️ The result is not one refrigerant market moving in one direction.
✔️ Different refrigerant ecosystems are beginning to develop different economic dynamics.
✔️ Legacy HFCs remain influenced by quota and the installed base.
✔️ Transition refrigerants depend increasingly on OEM platform choices.
✔️ Natural refrigerants depend on the speed at which equipment, components and service infrastructure develop around them.
✔️ Reclaimed refrigerants are starting to create another supply channel for the existing installed base.
➡️ This may be the more useful reading of the Q2 figures.
✔️ The first phase of F-Gas acted mainly by restricting supply.
✔️ The next phase may increasingly act by redistributing demand.
And once demand starts moving between different technological ecosystems, low GWP does not automatically mean low price.
The price of the refrigerant starts reflecting the architecture developing around it.
