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And more about adapting the whole system around fewer acceptable choices.

Since 2017, the low-GWP refrigerant landscape has not changed as much as many expected.

A recent review by Piotr A. Domanski and Mark O. McLinden confirms a relevant point:

๐—ฉ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„-๐—š๐—ช๐—ฃ ๐—ณ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฑ, ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ป๐—ผ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐˜„ ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฐ๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€ ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ.

This matters.

The refrigerant transition is often presented as a substitution process:
✔️ Old refrigerant out, new refrigerant in.

But the reality is becoming more constrained.

A refrigerant now has to satisfy several conditions at the same time:

▪️ low GWP
▪️ acceptable toxicity
▪️ acceptable flammability
▪️ suitable pressure level
▪️ good efficiency
▪️ chemical stability
▪️ regulatory acceptability
▪️ manageable environmental breakdown products

Very few fluids can meet all these requirements at once.

This changes the competitive question.

Fluorinated alternatives remain technically important, but in Europe, they are increasingly exposed to regulatory uncertainty, especially around F-gas, PFAS and TFA discussions.

Natural refrigerants such as CO₂, propane, isobutane and ammonia gain strategic relevance.

๐—•๐˜‚๐˜ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐˜† ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐˜€.

They require different system architectures, different safety logic, different installation competence and different service practices.

So the key question is no longer only:

“๐—ช๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐˜€ ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ฒ?”

It is becoming:

“๐—ช๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ต ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ณ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ฏ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—น๐—ฑ ๐˜€๐—ฎ๐—ณ๐—ฒ, ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜€๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—บ๐˜€ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฎ ๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜ ๐—น๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐˜€๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ?”

For HVAC/R manufacturers entering or expanding in Europe, this has a direct market implication.

๐—” ๐—น๐—ผ๐˜„-๐—š๐—ช๐—ฃ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฐ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜ ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ผ๐˜‚๐—ด๐—ต.

The product, the distribution network, the installer base and the regulatory pathway must be coherent.

๐—ง๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ณ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ป๐—ผ ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ผ๐—ป๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฎ ๐—บ๐—ผ๐—น๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฒ.
๐—œ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—บ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ฎ ๐˜€๐˜†๐˜€๐˜๐—ฒ๐—บ ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฐ๐—ต๐—ถ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐˜€๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฒ.

๐˜š๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ: ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜ฌ๐˜ช, ๐˜—.๐˜ˆ. ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜”๐˜ค๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ, ๐˜”.๐˜–., “๐˜œ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ-๐˜จ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ญ-๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ-๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ด”, ๐˜๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜‘๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ, 2025